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BBC HomepageSkip to contentAccessibility HelpYour accountLiveNotificationsHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeMore menuMore menuSearch BBCHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeCBBCCBeebiesFoodClose menuBBC NewsMenuHomeIsrael-Gaza warCost of LivingWar in UkraineClimateUKWorldBusinessPoliticsCultureMoreTechScienceHealthFamily & EducationIn PicturesNewsbeatBBC VerifyDisabilityWorldAfricaAsiaAustraliaEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastUS & CanadaUkraine war: Is Russia about to win another victory?Published11 minutes agoShareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRelated TopicsWar in UkraineImage source, ReutersImage caption, Russia may be on the verge of taking AvdiivkaBy James WaterhouseUkraine correspondent in Kyiv “Difficult, but under control”, “manoeuvring” but not “retreating”.Ukraine’s military has chosen its words carefully when it comes to the situation in the eastern city of Avdiivka, which was briefly occupied by Russia in 2014 before being retaken by Ukraine.But the inescapable reality is that Russia is likely to be about to achieve its biggest victory since Ukraine’s failed counter offensive last year – by taking it once more.Despite suffering enormous losses, four months of relentless attacks have left the Ukrainians troops there outnumbered, outgunned, and with dwindling ammunition.What would Avdiivka’s fall mean for the wider conflict?The short termThe most pressing question for Ukraine is whether its soldiers can make it out of Avdiivka alive.The 3rd Assault Brigade deployed in the city says they’re being attacked by infantry in all directions. Reports suggest the Russians have also cut off the main supply route for Ukrainian forces.Russia has concentrated its best-trained fighters in the area and is believed to be dropping up to 60 bombs a day on Ukrainian positions.As with other Ukrainian settlements on the front line, Russia will “liberate” an almost totally destroyed city.Image source, ReutersImage caption, Russia captured Bakhmut last yearThe last time a Ukrainian city – Bakhmut – was taken by the Russians, the country’s now-head of the armed forces was criticised for holding on to it for too long. General Oleksandr Syrskyi was accused of pursuing a symbolic victory at the expense of needless casualties.But in a recent interview, he said Ukraine was now moving to a “defensive operation” and that he would “rather retreat than sacrifice personnel”.Avdiivka will test that claim.The medium termWith this now being a war of attrition, the difference in Ukraine and Russia’s size is becoming more apparent. Russia’s population of 331 million is over seven times larger than Ukraine’s.This Russian advance hasn’t happened overnight. Since last October, Moscow has launched wave after wave of attacks towards Avdiivka.From their raised positions and reinforced defences in the industrial city, the Ukrainians were able to hold them off with targeted strikes, leaving the scarred Donbas landscape littered with Russian bodies and destroyed armoured vehicles.US warns key Ukrainian town could fall to RussiaInside Ukraine’s struggle to find new men to fightTrump on Nato: Dangerous talk at a dangerous timeDespite losing thousands of soldiers in the process, Moscow has made its size count by replenishing them almost immediately. Ukrainian forces have suffered losses too, though not to the same extent.Now it seems Russian troops have penetrated defences which have been reinforced over the 10 years since Moscow’s campaign of aggression first started.To Kyiv’s frustration, Ukraine has been unable to break Russian fortifications elsewhere, which were built in a matter of months.”Russia can’t achieve strategical goals, only tactical ones,” says Major Rodion Kudryashov, a Ukrainian deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade fighting in Avdiivka. He says his troops are outnumbered by as many as seven to one. Over the phone he told me: “It’s like fighting two armies.” He’s confident the Russians wouldn’t push further to cities like Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, but that is far from guaranteed.What it will do for them is relieve pressure on the city of Donetsk 15km (9 miles) further east, which Russia has occupied since 2014.The long termUkraine has been forced backwards like this before, notably in the summer of 2022.Large, well-equipped Russian units encircled cities like Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. The Ukrainians could do little to stop them.However, a subsequent influx of Western weapons and inspired military thinking led to a changing of the tide later that year, with liberations in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.But this is a different war now.Global politics are having a more significant impact on the battlefield. Stuttering Western help has directly contributed to this likely Ukrainian retreat in Avdiivka. The US leads the way on providing weapons to Ukraine, because of the scale and speed it can provide them. With a $95bn package including aid for Ukraine still not approved in Washington, other allies are struggling to fill the gap. It means the Ukrainians are having to ration ammunition and manage low morale. And Avdiivka may not be the only withdrawal Kyiv is considering. Vladimir Putin also still wants the whole of Ukraine, and it is still possible that he could take it.That prospect could either restore Western unity in trying to prevent it, or fuel the scepticism that Ukraine was never able to win this war, despite the extraordinary defence it has displayed in Avdiivka and elsewhere.Related TopicsWar in UkraineRussiaUkraineMore on this storyFaisal Islam: Russia’s war economy cannot last but has bought timePublished5 days agoThe Ukrainians ‘disappearing’ in Russia’s prisonsPublished6 days agoRussia-Ukraine ties will eventually heal, says PutinPublished7 days agoTop StoriesLive. ‘Putin is responsible’ – Biden speaks out after report of Navalny’s deathJob not done despite huge poll wins over Tories, says StarmerPublished3 hours agoChris Mason: Tory gloom deepens after double poll blowPublished5 hours agoFeaturesAlexei Navalny: What we know about reports of his deathNavalny’s moments of defiance as Putin’s fiercest critic. 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[ad_1] “Russia can’t achieve strategical goals, only tactical ones,” says Major Rodion Kudryashov, a Ukrainian deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade fighting in Avdiivka. He says his troops are…
![BBC HomepageSkip to contentAccessibility HelpYour accountLiveNotificationsHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeMore menuMore menuSearch BBCHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeCBBCCBeebiesFoodClose menuBBC NewsMenuHomeIsrael-Gaza warCost of LivingWar in UkraineClimateUKWorldBusinessPoliticsCultureMoreTechScienceHealthFamily & EducationIn PicturesNewsbeatBBC VerifyDisabilityWorldAfricaAsiaAustraliaEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastUS & CanadaUkraine Russia war: US warns Avdiivka could fallPublished3 hours agoShareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRelated TopicsWar in UkraineThis video can not be playedTo play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser.Media caption, “I will die here”: Evacuation “angels” help front-line town’s last residents fleeBy Jaroslav LukivBBC NewsThe US has warned that Russia could seize Ukraine’s key eastern town of Avdiivka – the scene of some of the fiercest fighting in recent months. “Avdiivka is at risk of falling into Russian control,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, citing Ukraine’s ammunition shortages. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to do everything to “save as many Ukrainian lives as possible”.Russian troops have made gains in Avdiivka, threatening to encircle it.The town – which has been almost completely destroyed – is seen as a gateway to nearby Donetsk, the regional Ukrainian capital seized by Russian-backed fighters in 2014 and later illegitimately annexed by Moscow.Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.Ukraine battles frostbite and shell shortage in ruined town Nothing but rubble: Ukraine’s shattered ghost town AvdiivkaAt Thursday’s briefing in Washington, Mr Kirby said Avdiivka could fall largely “because the Ukrainian forces on the ground are running out of artillery ammunition”.”Russia is sending wave after wave of conscript forces to attack Ukrainian positions,” he said. “And because Congress has yet to pass the supplemental bill, we have not been able to provide Ukraine with the artillery shells that they desperately need to disrupt these Russian assaults.”Russian forces are now reaching Ukrainian trenches in Avdiivka, and they’re beginning to overwhelm Ukrainian defences.”Earlier this week, the US Senate approved a $95bn (£75bn) foreign aid package – including $60bn for Ukraine – after months of political wrangling, but it faces an uphill battle in the House of Representatives.Ukraine is critically dependent on weapons supplies from the US and other Western allies to be able to continue fighting Russia – a much bigger military force with an abundance of artillery ammunition.Nato Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg warned on Thursday that the US failure to approve continued military assistance to Ukraine was already having an impact on the battlefield.Image source, ReutersImage caption, Smoke rises over an industrial site in Avdiivka on ThursdayIn his video address late on Thursday, President Zelensky said: “We are doing everything we can to ensure that our warriors have enough managerial and technological capabilities to save as many Ukrainian lives as possible.”On Friday, Mr Zelensky is visiting Berlin and Paris where is expected to sign security pacts with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron.A similar agreement on security co-operation was signed between Ukraine and the UK in January.Late on Thursday, Ukrainian General Oleksandr Tarnavsky admitted that “fierce battles” were taking place “within” Avdiivka.”We value every piece of Ukrainian land, but the highest value and priority for us is the preservation of the life of a Ukrainian soldier,” he said.Earlier in the day, Ukraine’s military spokesman Dmytro Lykhoviy acknowledged that Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka were being forced to “sometimes move to more advantageous positions… in some places leaving positions”.Some Ukrainian soldiers have privately admitted the town could fall at any moment.”We’re upset,” Ukrainian officer Oleksii, from Ukraine’s 110th Mechanised Brigade in the Avdiivka area, told the BBC earlier this week, standing beside a huge mobile artillery piece as Russian guns boomed in the distance.”Currently we have two shells, but we have no [explosive] charges for them… so we can’t fire them. As of now, we have run out of shells,” said Oleksii. He suggested that the shortages were widespread and having a dramatic impact on the fighting in Avdiivka.”We feel a very strong responsibility for our guys fighting right now in the town, armed only with assault rifles.”Ukraine’s newly appointed commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, visited the frontline in the Avdiivka area this week, acknowledging that the situation there was “difficult”.He said the Russian military did not “count losses”, using its troops as cannon fodder.Kyiv says an elite Ukrainian brigade has now been sent to Avdiivka and reserve artillery has been deployed.In unverified reports, Russian military bloggers said on Thursday that a key Ukrainian defence position in southern Avdiivka – known as Zenit – was now under Moscow’s control.Related TopicsWar in UkraineRussiaUkraineMore on this storyUkraine battles frostbite and shell shortage in ruined townPublished15 hours agoNothing but rubble: Ukraine’s shattered ghost town AvdiivkaPublished30 JanuaryFull cemeteries and empty homes: Ukrainians struggle to endurePublished1 day agoThe Ukrainians ‘disappearing’ in Russia’s prisonsPublished6 days agoTop StoriesLive. 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