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BBC HomepageSkip to contentAccessibility HelpYour accountNotificationsHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeMore menuMore menuSearch BBCHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeCBBCCBeebiesFoodClose menuBBC NewsMenuHomeIsrael-Gaza warCost of LivingWar in UkraineClimateUKWorldBusinessPoliticsCultureMoreTechScienceHealthFamily & EducationIn PicturesNewsbeatBBC VerifyDisabilityWorldAfricaAsiaAustraliaEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastUS & CanadaSydney mall attack: Confronting pro-Kremlin troll on false claims Jewish student was killerPublished51 minutes agoShareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRelated TopicsSydney attackImage source, Aussie CossackImage caption, Simeon Boikov, known as Aussie Cossack online, fled to the Russian consulate in Sydney last yearBy Marianna SpringDisinformation and social media correspondent”I never falsely suggested anything,” Simeon Boikov tells me.Under the alter ego “Aussie Cossack”, he posted untrue speculation that a 20-year-old Jewish university student was the attacker who had stabbed and killed five women and one man at a Westfield shopping centre in Sydney.He said on X: “Unconfirmed reports identify the Bondi attacker as Benjamin Cohen. Cohen? Really? And to think so many commentators tried to initially blame Muslims.”The actual attacker, shot dead by police, was later identified as Joel Cauchi, 40. The authorities say his actions were most probably related to his mental health.Within hours of Mr Boikov’s post on X, the false claims he amplified had reached hundreds of thousands of people on X and Telegram, and had even been repeated by a national news outlet.I tracked him down because I want to understand how his posts triggered an online frenzy that reached the mainstream media – with serious consequences for Mr Cohen, who’s described his distress at being accused of an attack he had nothing to do with.Mr Boikov is speaking to me from the Russian consulate in Sydney, to where he fled more than a year ago after a warrant was issued over his arrest for alleged assault. The pro-Kremlin social media personality was granted Russian citizenship by Russian President Vladimir Putin last year – and has requested political asylum in Russia.He wasn’t the first user to mention the name Benjamin Cohen. It appeared to originate on a small account sharing almost exclusively anti-Israel content.This is one of the ways disinformation now spreads.Digital disinformation expert Marc Owen-Jones says: “It’s less obvious and suspicious than if an influential and known partisan account was to initially tweet it.”Then more established accounts can use this ‘seeded’ narrative as if it’s a legitimate vox pop, and claim they are just ‘reporting’ what’s being said online.”There were also other larger accounts suggesting the attack was somehow connected to Israel or Gaza – before Aussie Cossack’s posts on X.But his were the first featuring Mr Cohen’s name to go viral.That’s likely because he had purchased a blue tick, meaning his content was prioritised ahead of other users and appeared higher up on people’s feeds, including users who did not follow him.Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, PM Anthony Albanese and NSW Premier Chris Minns (both centre) were among those laying flowersThe initial post racked up more than 400,000 views, according to X’s own data – before police identified the attacker as Cauchi, not Benjamin Cohen. Aussie Cossack followed up with another post on X with the likeness of a video showing the actual attacker, Cauchi, side by side with a picture of Mr Cohen.On Telegram, he also posted a screengrab of Mr Cohen’s LinkedIn page, revealing where he worked and studied.But speaking to me, Mr Boikov stresses the scepticism in his tweet – he says he was the “first large platform to warn this is unconfirmed”.He suggests he pointed out the unconfirmed nature of the claim to “the hundreds of thousands of people who saw my posts”.However, comments from lots of users online in response to his posts suggest they viewed it the opposite way, and assumed Mr Cohen was the attacker.I challenged Mr Boikov on how his posts had amplified false claims to hundreds of thousands of people, causing serious harm to the student at its centre. This came as families were – and still are – grieving for loved ones killed in the attack.”Sorry, love, you’re doing that right now,” he said. “What you’re doing now is you are talking about the speculation of a false claim, and you’re writing a story about it.”Share in revenueMr Boikov’s is one of hundreds of very active accounts on X with blue ticks now regularly sharing content in this way – whether or not it’s true.Under X’s new guidelines – since Elon Musk bought the social media company – users can receive a “share of the revenue” generated by ads from their posts, if they purchase a blue tick.Aussie Cossack’s posts were picked up and re-circulated by dozens of other accounts, including several with a track record of sharing false claims. Several regularly share content critical of Israel or content relating to the war in Gaza.These false accusations soon bled on to other social media platforms.”Benjamin Cohen” was the search option suggested on several videos of the attack by TikTok when I was looking through content related to the stabbing on Saturday night.Scrolling through these clips, I found the comments were littered with his name before the police had confirmed the real identity of the attacker.”The attacker’s name is Benjamin Cohen IDF Soldier,” one user wrote. Their account had no posts, and no profile picture. I sent a message. No response.”Shame he’s a Jew right? Why don’t the media outlets label him?” another account wrote on a video showing people running through the mall. As soon as I messaged this one asking about its comments, it blocked me.Repeated by news channelIt’s hard to confirm definitively where these accounts are based. They have the hallmarks of inauthentic profiles, without any identifying features and sharing divisive comments repeatedly.X, Telegram and TikTok have not yet replied to the BBC’s requests for comment.Worryingly, the speculation was picked up by Australian media outlet 7News, which named Benjamin Cohen as the “40-year-old lone wolf attacker”. Screengrabs of their report further fuelled the wildfire online.7News later retracted the report and apologised, attributing it to “human error”. But by this point, antisemitic threats were being directed at Benjamin Cohen, who has described the incident as “highly distressing and disappointing to myself and my family”. He has expressed shock not only that he was falsely accused repeatedly on social media, but that even a major news network had identified him.While the social media frenzy was unfolding, his dad Mark Cohen defended his son on X. He called on New South Wales Police to reveal the name of the attacker “before this nonsense claiming it was my son causes more harm”.Image source, XIn parallel, false claims were circulating that the attacker was Muslim. These were shared by prominent journalists and political accounts on X with hundreds of thousands of followers from the UK to the US.British journalist and presenter Julia Hartley-Brewer suggested the stabbings were “another terror attack by another Islamist terrorist”, while TV presenter Rachel Riley said it was part of a “Global Intifada”. They both later retracted their posts.Hartley-Brewer posted that she had been “incorrect” and that the Sydney massacre “was not an Islamist terror attack”, while Riley said she was “sorry” if her message had been “misunderstood”.Dozens of accounts on TikTok also spread false claims that the attacker was Muslim. I messaged several of them – but they haven’t responded.New South Wales Police have suggested the real attacker, Cauchi, deliberately targeted women – who make up five out of six of the victims.Several online forums dedicated to incels – a subculture who define themselves as unable to get a sexual partner, despite desiring one – have praised Cauchi as one of their own for the attack.But so far there’s no concrete evidence of Cauchi being involved directly with these online movements. When asked why Cauchi could have targeted women, his father said that his son had “wanted a girlfriend” and that had had “no social skills and was frustrated out of his brain”.Increasingly, attacks in the real world are being followed by this kind of social media frenzy – where misinformation is hugely amplified.For the families and friends of those who have been killed, and the innocent bystanders falsely accused, this toxic rumour-mill is causing serious harm.Related TopicsIslamophobiaSydney attackRussiaDisinformationAntisemitismSydneyAustraliaTop StoriesIsrael war cabinet meets to discuss Iran responsePublished3 hours agoDozens of jurors ruled out as historic Trump trial beginsPublished3 hours agoTruss endorses Trump to win US presidential racePublished5 hours agoFeaturesThe Papers: ‘Frantic diplomacy’ over Iran and Trump trial beginsSalman Rushdie: Losing an eye upsets me every day’Hero’ who took on killer describes Sydney attackBowen: As Israel debates Iran response, can US and allies stop slide into all-out war?What was in wave of Iranian attacks and how were they thwarted?What you need to vote has changed. 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[ad_1] Simeon Boikov sparked a social media frenzy implicating an innocent 20-year-old in the shopping mall attack.
![BBC HomepageSkip to contentAccessibility HelpYour accountNotificationsHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeMore menuMore menuSearch BBCHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeCBBCCBeebiesFoodClose menuBBC NewsMenuHomeIsrael-Gaza warCost of LivingWar in UkraineClimateUKWorldBusinessPoliticsCultureMoreTechScienceHealthFamily & EducationIn PicturesNewsbeatBBC VerifyDisabilityWorldAfricaAsiaAustraliaEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastUS & CanadaChibok girls feel let down 10 years after Nigeria kidnappingPublished5 minutes agoShareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRelated TopicsNigeria schoolgirl kidnappingsImage source, BBC/Simpa SamsonImage caption, Amina Ali became the first Chibok girl to escape prolonged captivity in 2016By Yemisi AdegokeBBC News, northern NigeriaWe had to meet Lisu in secret as she says the local Nigerian authorities are trying to prevent her from talking to journalists.She was one of the 276 girls abducted from their school in the town of Chibok exactly a decade ago – a kidnapping that shocked the world and sparked a global campaign to #BringBackOurGirls, which included former US First Lady Michelle Obama.More than 180 have either since escaped or been freed, including Lisu, who gave birth to two children while she was a hostage of the militant Islamist group Boko Haram, living in a hideout in the Sambisa forest.After escaping, Lisu – which is not her real name – went through the government rehabilitation programme, before being placed in group accommodation with other escapees. “I do regret coming back,” she says, shuffling in her seat. Not exactly the message the authorities want coming out. The Borno state government has denied limiting the former captives’ freedom of speech.Image source, BBC/Simpa SamsonImage caption, Lisu is “deeply unhappy” about the way she has been treated in the government accommodationLisu feels the way she is now treated is worse than what she lived through before.”Sometimes I cry when I remember. I ask myself: ‘Why did I even leave Sambisa to come back to Nigeria, only to come and face such degrading treatment, being insulted almost daily?’ I never experienced such heartache while I was in Sambisa.”Lisu says she is barely surviving under state care; basic provisions like food and soap are not enough, her movements are closely watched and restricted by security guards and she has been subjected to verbal abuse from staff at the group home.”They yell at us all the time, I am deeply unhappy,” she says. “I had more freedom at the Boko Haram camp than I do here.”This is a characterisation that the Borno state government said it did not recognise. In a statement to the BBC, it said there were no restrictions on the movements of the young women in its care except when there were issues of their personal safety. The authorities said they were also providing enough food and nutrition for the former captives and their children. Though the experiences of those who fled or were freed are varied, and they are all at different stages of rehabilitation, a theme that promises made to them over the years had been broken emerged from those we spoke to.In 2016, Amina Ali became the first of the Chibok captives to escape since the immediate aftermath of the kidnapping.She too is dissatisfied with her treatment. The last time she saw the sprawling school campus that now stands in front of her, it was on fire – that was the night of 14 April, 2014.”Wow, this school still exists,” she says softly, gazing at the newly renovated, cream-coloured buildings. “After all that happened to us, it’s still here.””We used to sit under that tree,” she continues, pointing at a towering, barren tree in the corner of the compound. She looks around, noting all the changes.Image source, BBC/Simpa SamsonImage caption, Amina has ambitions to be a journalist and help tell the story of the Chibok girlsThe grass is overgrown, the tiles on the walkways are new. The rust-coloured main gate has been moved and the dormitories do not exist any more. When the grounds were rebuilt, it reopened as a day school in 2021.While the cosmetic changes to the school are significant, outside the gates little has changed in Chibok. Insecurity is still rife. Boko Haram gunmen continue to attack the area, the latest assault late last year.The poorly maintained roads are dotted with checkpoints and there is a heavy military presence in the town. Mobile communication is patchy, a telecom mast lies on its side next to the road, probably felled by militants, a local colleague says.Then there are the emotional scars.Amina spent two years as a hostage in Sambisa. Like many of the captives, she was forced to “marry” a militant and convert to Islam. There was a routine to life in the forest; cooking, cleaning, learning the Quran, but Amina never gave up hope that one day she would escape.”I just thought even if I spend 10 years [as a hostage], one day I will escape,” she says.And one day she did.It took weeks of trekking through thick bush in sweltering temperatures, little food and with her two-month-old baby strapped to her back, but she made it.Parents of Chibok girls heartbroken – againThe secret diaries of the Chibok girlsThe town that lost its girlsBut more than 90 girls are still missing. Her friend Helen Nglada is one of them. Amina and Helen were classmates. They were both singers in the church band that Helen led. After the kidnap, the two grew close in Sambisa forest, spending as much time as they could together. The last conversation Amina had with Helen was about Chibok and how much they wished they could go back there. Image source, BBC/Simpa SamsonImage caption, For Helen’s mother, Saratu, meeting Amina brings back painful memoriesThe agony caused by Helen’s continued absence is etched on the faces of her parents, Saratu and Ibrahim, who are sitting outside their modest home, a short distance from the school.Her mother tightly grips two photographs of Helen and her sister. The girls are wearing matching outfits, headscarves and serious expressions.”I just wish I got my friend back,” Amina says, “so we can share the happiness with her.”Saratu struggles to contain her emotions. “Any time you come to the house and I see you, my mind goes back to my daughter,” she says to Amina.She breaks down into floods of tears and Amina places a hand on her shoulder to comfort her.”I just want our [state] governor to do something and rescue our children,” Ibrahim says quietly. “He should put in more effort to rescue the other children.”Amina’s escape in 2016 was accompanied by huge fanfare and relief.After being debriefed by the military, she met government officials including then President Muhammadu Buhari, who said the course of her life would change for the better.”[The president said] he’s going to take care of us and send us to school and even our children too,” Amina recalls. “Because it’s not our fault to find ourselves in that situation and the children too, they don’t know anything. They’re innocent. So he’s going to take care of them.”Image source, AFPImage caption, When she escaped from Boko Haram in 2016, Amina (L) and her baby met then President Muhammadu BuhariLife today does not look like what was promised.Amina now lives in Yola, about five hours away from Chibok by road, and shares a small room with her daughter. They share an outdoor bathroom with a neighbour and she cooks on firewood outside.Money is tight. She receives 20,000 naira ($15; £12) a month to cover everyday expenses but nothing for her daughter’s education, despite the government’s promises. She pays that bill herself with the little money she makes from farming.”It’s hard for me to look after my daughter,” she says. “What can I do? I have to do it because I don’t have anyone.”Image source, BBC/Simpa SamsonImage caption, Amina struggles with the money she has to bring up her daughter who was born in a Boko Haram campAmina is balancing raising her daughter while studying at the American University of Nigeria (AUN), a private and elite institution.AUN is the only option Amina and the other Chibok girls were given to resume their studies, but many of them have struggled to keep up and some have dropped out. “We didn’t choose AUN because we know the school standards are difficult for us, we girls come from poor backgrounds,” she says. “The former minister forced us to come to this school.” The girls said they would have liked more autonomy in choosing where they could study and wonder if some of the government’s money spent covering the AUN’s high fees could have been better spent directly supporting them. Amina has attended AUN since 2017, but is not close to graduating. Only one of the former captives has graduated.Nigeria’s Women’s Affairs Minister Uju Kennedy-Ohanenye says the government has been paying AUN roughly $350,000 a year for the Chibok girls and their education over the last six years. It is an arrangement she says will be reviewed.”I’m not paying nobody that kind of money. Even if they put it on the budget, I will not release the money,” she says. “The girls should be considered first and foremost. School is important, first and foremost. But you don’t go to school on an empty stomach.”Rakiya Gali is another Chibok girl – she escaped from Boko Haram in 2017. She was a student at AUN briefly, but dropped out due to poor health.Rakiya says she does not receive any financial support and like Amina pays for her son’s education with the money she makes from farming, despite promises from the government.”The government has been unfair to us,” she says in an impassioned voice. “They knew that we went into [Sambisa forest] and came back with children. If they cannot help us, then who will help us?”In addition to the financial burden, Rakiya lives in fear, as her town is still being attacked by Boko Haram. She says militants recently burned down her son’s school.”Whenever I hear any sound, I think it is a gunshot,” she says.Image source, BBC/Simpa SamsonImage caption, The school still exists – though it no longer takes boardersRakiya desperately wants to move forward with her life and secure the best possible education for her son, but the lack of support makes things feel impossible. So much so, she believes the Chibok girls who remain hostages would stay with Boko Haram if they could see how she and those who escaped are living outside the camp.”When [the girls] return [they] will come join us in this situation,” she says. “I would say it is better to stay [in Sambisa forest] with the child and the father will provide support, rather than going through this trouble.”The conditions she describes are a far cry from those of one of their former captors.Muhammad Alli, a former Boko Haram fighter who was involved in the Chibok kidnapping, is now living in Maiduguri with his family – including eight children. He was part of the militant group for 13 years and rose to the rank of commander, even forcefully “marrying” one of the Chibok girls.”At the time I married them, I did not feel any guilt,” he says. “But when I decided to surrender, I started to realise how awful they must have felt being forced to do these things.”Like thousands of other fighters, Muhammad was granted amnesty and completed the state government rehabilitation programme. He has a farm, but also works with the military to help rescue abducted girls.Image source, BBC/Simpa SamsonImage caption, Muhammad Alli is now helping the authorities tackle other hostage situationsLast year he was part of a group that rescued some of the same people he had helped kidnap. “They were in a terrible state when we found them,” he says. “I cried at the sight of them.”The amnesty programme is not without controversy, with some saying that former militants like Mohammad should serve jail time and be held accountable for their numerous crimes. “All I can say in that regard is to ask for forgiveness,” Mohammed counters. “I am remorseful, I am looking for ways to quench the fire we started, and I do this with the men whom I surrendered with. We are doing our best to weaken the effects of insurgency.”But the insurgency rages on, and kidnapping for ransom has become even more widespread in Nigeria. While reporting this story there were three separate kidnappings in north-eastern Nigeria, one of these attacks was on a school and was the largest of its kind since 2021.Mohammad says that the “success” of the Chibok kidnappings has encouraged these types of attacks.”We realised that the event shook the entire nation and Africa as a whole,” he says. “And the core mission of Boko Haram for [group leader] Abubakar Shekau was to ensure our activities attracted attention. “He also got money off some of these actions, which helped pay for transport and food, and that’s why they continued the abductions.”Serious questions remain around Nigeria’s military and its ability to tackle the insurgency that has spanned more than a decade and left hundreds of thousands of people dead, particularly as insecurity spreads to other parts of the country.Gen Christopher Gwabin Musa, Nigeria’s defence chief, has acknowledged the “enormous” challenges facing the military, calling the current state of insecurity in the country a “rude shock”, but is confident the tide is turning.As for the 91 Chibok girls still being held captive, Gen Musa says the military has not given up hope that they will be rescued.Despite her satisfaction with her current situation, Amina is hopeful too. She hopes to become a journalist one day, to be a voice for victims of kidnapping, to be a leader. She also hopes her daughter will finish her education and have a bright, safe future.Most of all, she hopes her classmates will one day be freed.”The only thing I need the government to do is to release some of my sisters that are still in captivity. I have that hope,” she says. “Because when they are still alive [there’s hope] they will come back one day.” You can watch Yemisi’s full report on the BBC Africa YouTube channelFind out more about the Chibok girls:PODCAST: What happened to the Chibok girls?Why was this freed Chibok girl treated differently? The kidnapped woman who defied Boko HaramThe man who brought back the Chibok girlsRelated TopicsNigeriaBoko HaramNigeria schoolgirl kidnappingsAround the BBCFocus on Africa podcastAfrica Daily podcastTop StoriesLive. 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![BBC HomepageSkip to contentAccessibility HelpYour accountNotificationsHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeMore menuMore menuSearch BBCHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeCBBCCBeebiesFoodClose menuBBC NewsMenuHomeIsrael-Gaza warCost of LivingWar in UkraineClimateUKWorldBusinessPoliticsCultureMoreTechScienceHealthFamily & EducationIn PicturesNewsbeatBBC VerifyDisabilityWorldAfricaAsiaAustraliaEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastUS & CanadaUkraine could face defeat in 2024. Here’s how that might lookPublished11 minutes agoShareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRelated TopicsWar in UkraineImage source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Ukraine has been defending itself against Russia’s full-scale invasion for two yearsBy Frank GardnerBBC security correspondentThe former commander of Britain’s Joint Forces Command has warned that Ukraine could face defeat by Russia in 2024.General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is “a serious risk” of Ukraine losing the war this year. The reason, he says, is “because Ukraine may come to feel it can’t win”.”And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?”Ukraine is not yet at that point. But its forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive. So what will that look like and what are its likely strategic objectives?”The shape of the Russian offensive that’s going to come is pretty clear,” says Gen Barrons. “We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a 5-to-1 advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons.”Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Ukraine is now desperately short of ammunition, in part due to political wrangling in Western nationsThese include the FAB glide bomb, an adapted Soviet-era “dumb bomb” fitted with fins, GPS guidance and 1500kg of high explosive, that is wreaking havoc on Ukrainian defences.”At some point this summer,” says Gen Barrons, “we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines. “And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them.”But where? Last year the Russians knew exactly where Ukraine was likely to attack – from the direction of Zaporizhzhia south towards the Sea of Azov. They planned accordingly and successfully blunted Ukraine’s advance. Now the boot is on the other foot as Russia masses its troops and keeps Kyiv guessing where it is going to attack next.”One of the challenges the Ukrainians have,” says Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow in land warfare at the Whitehall thinktank the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), “is that the Russians can choose where they commit their forces. “It’s a very long front line and the Ukrainians need to be able to defend all of it.”Which, of course, they can’t. Ukrainecast: Q&A: How can Ukraine grow its army? “The Ukrainian military will lose ground,” says Dr Watling. “The question is: how much and which population centres are going to be affected?”It is quite possible that Russia’s General Staff have yet to go firm on which direction to designate as their main effort. But it is possible to broadly break down their various options into three broad locations.Kharkiv”Kharkiv,” says Dr Watling, “is certainly vulnerable.”As Ukraine’s second city, situated perilously close to the Russian border, Kharkiv is a tempting goal for Moscow. It is currently being pummelled daily with Russian missile strikes, with Ukraine unable to field sufficient air defences to ward off the lethal mix of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles aimed in its direction. Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Russia hits Kharkiv daily with drones, missiles and shelling”I think the offensive this year will have breaking out of the Donbas as its first objective,” adds Gen Barrons, “and their eye will be on Kharkiv which is 29 kilometres or so from the Russian border, a major prize.”Could Ukraine still function as a viable entity if Kharkiv were to fall? Yes, say analysts, but it would be a catastrophic blow to both its morale and its economy.The DonbasThe area of eastern Ukraine known collectively as the Donbas has been at war since 2014, when Moscow-backed separatists declared themselves “people’s republics”. In 2022 Russia illegally annexed the two Donbas oblasts, or provinces, of Donetsk and Luhansk. This is where most of the fighting on land has been taking place over the past 18 months. Ukraine has, controversially, expended enormous efforts, in both manpower and resources, in trying to hold on to first the town of Bakhmut, and then Avdiivka. It has lost both, as well as some of its best fighting troops, in the attempt. This video can not be playedTo play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser.Media caption, BBC documentary shows Ukrainian front line troops defending against a Russian attackKyiv has countered that its resistance has inflicted disproportionately high casualties on the Russians. That’s true, with the battlefield in these places being dubbed “the meat grinder”. But Moscow has plenty more troops to thrown into the fight – and Ukraine doesn’t. This week the Commander of US Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, warned that unless the US rushes significantly more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine then its forces will be outgunned on the battlefield by 10 to 1.Mass matters. The Russian army’s tactics, leadership and equipment may be inferior to Ukraine’s, but it has such superiority in numbers, especially artillery, that if it does nothing else this year, its default option will be to keep pushing Ukraine’s forces back in a westward direction, taking village after village.ZaporizhzhiaThis, too, is a tempting prize for Moscow. The southern Ukrainian city of more than 700,000 (in peacetime) sits dangerously close to the Russian front lines.It is also something of a thorn in Russia’s side given that it is the capital of an oblast of the same name that Russia has illegally annexed, and yet the city is still living freely in Ukrainian hands.But the formidable defences that Russia built south of Zaporizhzhia last year, in the correct expectation of a Ukrainian attack, would now complicate a Russian advance from there. The so-called Surovikin Line, consisting of triple layers of defences, is laced with the largest, most densely packed minefield in the world. Russia could partially dismantle this but its preparations would likely be detected. Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Ukraine is now one of the most heavily mined places in the worldRussia’s strategic objective this year may not even be territorial. It could simply be to crush Ukraine’s fighting spirit and convince its Western backers that this war is a lost cause. Dr Jack Watling believes the Russian objective is “to try to generate a sense of hopelessness. “This [Russian] offensive will not decisively end the conflict, irrespective of how it goes for either side.”Gen Barrons is also sceptical that, despite the dire situation Ukraine now finds itself in, Russia will automatically drive home its advantage with a decisive advance. “I think the most likely outcome is that Russia will have made gains, but will not have managed to break through. “It will not have forces that are big enough or good enough to punch all the way through to the river [Dnipro]… But the war will have turned in Russia’s favour.”One thing is certain: Russia’s President Putin has no intention of giving up on his assault on Ukraine. He’s like a poker player gambling all his chips on a win. 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