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BBC HomepageSkip to contentAccessibility HelpYour accountNotificationsHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeMore menuMore menuSearch BBCHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeCBBCCBeebiesFoodClose menuBBC NewsMenuHomeIsrael-Gaza warCost of LivingWar in UkraineClimateUKWorldBusinessPoliticsCultureMoreTechScienceHealthFamily & EducationIn PicturesNewsbeatBBC VerifyDisabilityScience & EnvironmentClimate change: El Niño ends with uncertainty over cooler futurePublished36 minutes agoShareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRelated TopicsClimateImage source, Getty ImagesBy Matt McGrathEnvironment correspondentThe powerful El Niño weather event which along with climate change has helped push global temperatures to new highs, has ended, say scientists.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the Pacific Ocean has “cooled substantially” in the past week.This naturally occurring episode that began last June brought warmer waters to the surface of the Pacific, adding extra heat to the atmosphere.But what happens next is uncertain, say researchers.A string of recent global monthly high temperature records has led some scientists to fear that the world could be tipping into a new phase of even faster climate change.Scientists say that the months after the end of El Niño will give a strong indication as to whether the recent high temperatures are due to accelerated climate change or not.What is El Niño and how does it change the weather?World’s coral turns white from deadly ocean heatUK food production at threat after extreme floodingEvery few years, the onset of El Niño brings dramatic change to weather in many parts of the world. The surge of warmer water that comes to the surface off the coast of Peru in South America is linked to increased droughts and floods in different parts of the world.The full name of the pattern is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO. It’s marked by three different phases, the hot El Niño, neutral conditions or a cooler period called La Niña. This current El Niño was declared last June, and reached a peak in December. The resulting warmer water in the Pacific has helped push global average temperatures to new highs, with March making it ten months in a row to break the record for that period. But now, perhaps quicker than expected, El Niño is gone.The critical question is what happens next and on this scientists are divided. US researchers recently said there was 60% chance of a La Niña developing between June-August, and an 85% chance of this happening by Autumn.But the Australian Bureau say such statements such be treated with caution. They expect neutral conditions to last until at least July. They point to the current hot state of the global oceans which they believe is affecting ENSO. “As the current global ocean conditions have not been observed before, inferences as to how ENSO may develop in 2024 that are based on past events may not be reliable,” they said in a statement. Whether or not a La Niña forms really matters, say researchers. It can have a significant impact on storms and hurricanes, with some experts predicting that if La Niña does arrive, it would herald a highly active hurricane season in the Atlantic.La Niña’s cooling effect may also slightly slow the rate of global heating. That might indicate that the record temperatures experienced over the past year were something of a mystery, and not evidence that the world has moved into a more rapid phase of warming.Related TopicsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeEl NiñoParis climate agreementClimateTop StoriesMuslim student loses school prayer ban challengePublished57 minutes agoLive. 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[ad_1] The natural event that adds to global warming has ended but scientists are unsure of what comes next.
![BBC HomepageSkip to contentAccessibility HelpYour accountLiveNotificationsHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeMore menuMore menuSearch BBCHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeCBBCCBeebiesFoodClose menuBBC NewsMenuHomeIsrael-Gaza warCost of LivingWar in UkraineClimateUKWorldBusinessPoliticsCultureMoreTechScienceHealthFamily & EducationIn PicturesNewsbeatBBC VerifyDisabilityScience & EnvironmentClimate change: The ‘insane’ plan to save the Arctic’s sea-icePublished37 minutes agoShareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRelated TopicsClimateImage source, Real IceImage caption, Saving the ice – a daring experiment or a dangerous distraction?By Mark PoyntingBBC News climate reporterPerched on sea-ice off Canada’s northern coast, parka-clad scientists watch saltwater pump out over the frozen ocean.Their goal? To slow global warming.As sea-ice vanishes, the dark ocean surface can absorb more of the Sun’s energy, which accelerates warming. So the researchers want to thicken it to stop it melting away.Welcome to the wackier side of geoengineering – deliberately intervening in the Earth’s climate system to try to counteract the damage we have done to it.Polar bears face starvation as ice meltsMore snow and rain is falling in the ArcticHottest February marks ninth new monthly record in a rowGeoengineering includes more established efforts to lock up planet-warming gases, such as planting more trees and burying carbon underground.But more experimental measures aim to go a step further, seeking to reduce the energy absorbed by the Earth.Many scientists are strongly opposed, warning that such attempts distract from the critical step of cutting carbon emissions and risk doing more harm than good.But a small number of advocates claim their approaches could give the planet a helping hand while humanity cleans up its act.The ultimate goal of the Arctic experiment is to thicken enough sea-ice to slow or even reverse the melting already seen, says Dr Shaun Fitzgerald, whose team at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for Climate Repair is behind the project.Will it work or is it, as one scientist put it, “quite insane”?”We don’t actually know enough to determine whether this is a good idea or bad idea,” admits Dr Fitzgerald.Image source, Real IceImage caption, “It’s quite cold,” the researchers say. Wind chill in Cambridge Bay can make it feel like -45CThe researchers have been braving bitter conditions in Cambridge Bay, a tiny Canadian village in the Arctic Circle.”It’s quite cold,” Andrea Ceccolini of Real Ice, a British company leading the trip, tells me via a patchy Zoom connection from inside a flapping white tent.”It’s about -30C with a strong wind, which brings the temperature to -45C with wind chill factor.”They are drilling a hole in the sea-ice that naturally forms in winter, and pumping around 1,000 litres of seawater per minute across the surface. Exposed to the cold winter air, this seawater quickly freezes, helping to thicken the ice on top. The water also compacts the snow. As fresh snow acts as a good insulating layer, now ice can also form more easily on the underside in contact with the ocean.”The idea is that the thicker the ice [at the end of winter], the longer it will survive when we go into the melt season,” Mr Ceccolini explains.Image source, Real IceImage caption, A pump is used to flood the sea-ice surface with seawater, which will then freezeSpeaking to me towards the end of their trip, they’ve already seen the ice thicken by a few tens of centimetres across their small study area. The ice will be monitored by locals in the months ahead.But it’s still far too early to say whether their approach can actually make a difference to the rapid decline in Arctic sea-ice.”The vast majority of polar scientists think this is never going to work out,” cautions Martin Siegert, an experienced glaciologist at the University of Exeter, who is not involved in the project.One issue is that the saltier ice may melt more quickly in the summer. And then there’s the huge logistical challenge of scaling the project up to a meaningful level – one estimate suggests that you could need about 10 million wind-powered pumps to thicken sea-ice across just a tenth of the Arctic. “It is quite insane in my opinion that this could be done at scale for the entire Arctic Ocean,” says Julienne Stroeve, a professor of polar observation and modelling at University College London.Some of the more experimental geoengineering suggestions include trying to make clouds more reflective by generating extra sea spray, and mimicking volcanic eruptions to reflect more of the Sun’s energy back into space.A number of scientists – including the UN’s climate and weather bodies – have warned that these approaches could pose grave risks, including disrupting global weather patterns. Many researchers want to see them banned altogether. “Geoengineering technologies come with enormous uncertainties and create novel risks for ecosystems and people,” explains Lili Fuhr, director of the Fossil Economy Program at the Center for International Environmental Law.”The Arctic is essential to sustaining our planetary systems: pumping sea water onto sea-ice on a large scale could change ocean chemistry and threatens the fragile web of life.”And there’s a more fundamental, widespread concern with these types of projects.”The real danger is it provides a distraction, and people with vested interests will use it as an excuse to keep burning fossil fuels,” Prof Siegert warns.”Frankly, it’s insane and needs to be stopped. The way to solve this crisis is to decarbonise: it’s our best and only way forward.”A simple guide to climate changeWhat is net zero, and how are the UK and other countries doing?The Arctic researchers are acutely aware of these concerns. They stress that they are simply testing the technology, and wouldn’t unleash it more widely until the risks are better known.”We’re not here promoting this as the solution to climate change in the Arctic,” Dr Fitzgerald stresses. “We’re saying that it could be [part of it], but we’ve got to go and find out a lot more before society can then decide whether it’s a sensible thing or not.”They agree that geoengineering is no silver bullet to tackling climate change, and that steep cuts to fossil fuels and carbon emissions are most important to avoid the worst consequences of warming.But they point out that even with rapid action, the world still faces a difficult future.The Arctic Ocean is likely to be effectively free of sea-ice by the end of summer at least once by 2050, and possibly even sooner. As the graph below shows, it’s already experienced steep declines since the 1980s.”We need other solutions,” argues PhD student Jacob Pantling, a researcher at the Centre for Climate Repair who braved the icy winds in Cambridge Bay. “We have to reduce emissions, but even if we do them as quickly as possible, the Arctic is still going to melt.”Map by Erwan RivaultRelated TopicsArcticClimateMore on this storyPolar bears face starvation threat as ice meltsPublished13 FebruaryMore snow and rain is falling in the ArcticPublished14 December 2022Hottest February marks ninth new monthly recordPublished7 MarchWhy is the world getting warmer?Published8 FebruaryTop StoriesAid reaches shore in Gaza after first sea deliveryPublished3 hours agoAll 35 bodies in Hull funeral inquiry identifiedPublished7 hours agoRussian arrests as ballot boxes targeted in Putin votePublished7 hours agoFeatures’Tory PM ousting plot’ and ‘Gran’s death row wait’Trying to stay alive in a town tormented by drugs, alcohol and suicideFive Champions League match-ups to look forward toAttributionSportWeekly quiz: Which exclusive Oscars club did Emma Stone join?Battle between West Bank farmers divides Israel and US Listen: Putin’s Russia: An election without democracy? 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