newsinsightplus.com 80saccidentalMichael January 29, 2024 0 Comments BBC HomepageSkip to contentAccessibility HelpYour accountLiveNotificationsHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeMore menuMore menuSearch BBCHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeCBBCCBeebiesFoodClose menuBBC NewsMenuHomeIsrael-Gaza warCost of LivingWar in UkraineClimateUKWorldBusinessPoliticsCultureMoreTechScienceHealthFamily & EducationIn PicturesNewsbeatBBC VerifyDisabilityWorldAfricaAsiaAustraliaEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastUS & CanadaJordan base attack: What options does US have to respond?Published1 hour agoShareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingImage source, ReutersImage caption, A US soldier walks towards a burning oil well in southern IraqBy Frank GardnerBBC security correspondentWashington now finds itself facing a dilemma. President Joe Biden has promised a strong response to Sunday’s deadly attack on a US military base in Jordan. But the challenge for the US is to find the right balance between deterrence and escalation. Fail to act decisively and it risks sending a message of weakness that will only encourage more attacks. Act too forcefully and it could trigger an escalatory response from Iran and its allies.So what are the options? And how does this work?The US will already have a number of “on-the-shelf” military options to choose from. These have been drawn up by the US Department of Defense with intelligence input from the CIA and the National Security Agency. They are then presented to the US National Security Council and policymakers, with the president making the final decision and signing off on the chosen course. Option 1: Strike Iran-allied bases and commandersThis is the most obvious choice and one that has been used in the past. There are a large number of bases, weapons stores and training depots across Iraq and Syria belonging to the myriad of Iran-backed militias. These militias are trained, equipped and funded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, but not necessarily directed by them. The US knows who they are and where they are. It could easily carry out more precision-guided missile strikes on these bases – but this has so far failed to deter the militias, who have launched more than 170 attacks on US bases in the region since 7 October.Image source, ReutersImage caption, One arm of the IRGC trains militias in the regionResponsibility for the attack has been claimed by a group calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. This is an umbrella term for a number of Iran-backed militias, some of which, ironically, have previously fought on the same side as the US against their common enemy in the region: Islamic State. They share common aims with Iran, namely to drive the US military from Iraq and Syria and to punish the US for its military support of Israel.Option 2: Strike IranThis would be a massive escalation and not something the US would consider lightly. It is highly unlikely, although not inconceivable, that the US retaliation would include hitting targets on Iranian sovereign territory. Neither Washington nor Tehran want to get into a full-scale war and both have said so. Iran’s response could well include attempting to close the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas flow. This would have a devastating effect on world economies, driving up prices and almost certainly damaging President Biden’s chances of re-election in November.Iran’s sudden strikes show just how perilous region has becomeWhat is Tower 22 and why are US troops in Jordan?Death of US troops ratchets up pressure on BidenOne alternative is to go after senior IRGC commanders in Iraq or Syria. There is a precedent for this, the most notable being four years ago when then-President Donald Trump ordered a drone strike that killed the IRGC Quds Force commander Qassim Suleimani in Baghdad in 2020. But this too would be seen as an escalation, and could well trigger a dangerous response from Tehran.Option 3: Don’t respondThere are those in the US establishment who argue that, given the current tensions in the Middle East, it would be irresponsible for Washington to hit Iranian interests now, especially in an election year. CENTCOM, the part of the US Department of Defense that covers the Middle East, already has its hands full combatting the Houthis’ attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It will also be listening to pleas from US allies around the region not to trigger a wider Middle East conflict.But this view is likely to be outweighed by those who say that the US policy of deterrence to date has failed, and that Washington’s reluctance to hit back hard at those who attack its bases has only encouraged them to step up their attacks.There is a time factor in all of this – some would argue that a radical uptick in US military responses may not be necessary or worthwhile in the long term. First, attacks by Iran-backed militias pre-date the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza – but they have dramatically increased since 7 October. Once Israel’s assault on Gaza concludes then tensions in the region may well subside, although Israel warns this could still be months away. Secondly, there are loud calls by some in Washington for the US to decrease its military footprint in the Middle East. President Trump, when he was in office, had to be persuaded by his military and intelligence chiefs not to pull out all US forces from Syria, where they were helping Kurdish forces stop ISIS from returning. There is a strong possibility that should Trump return to the White House in a year’s time, then Iran will get its way anyhow, if he decides to draw down the US presence in Iraq and Syria.Related TopicsMiddle EastUS Armed ForcesJordanIran-US relationsSyriaJoe BidenMore on this storyIran’s sudden strikes show just how perilous region has becomePublished20 JanuaryThree US troops killed in Middle East drone attackPublished16 hours agoWhat is Tower 22 and why are US troops in Jordan?Published3 hours agoDeath of US troops ratchets up pressure on BidenPublished3 hours agoIran denies involvement in attack that killed US troopsPublished7 hours agoTop StoriesLive. Pentagon names three US soldiers killed in Jordan attackWhat options does US have to respond to Jordan attack?Published1 hour agoKing leaves hospital with Camilla hours after Kate is dischargedPublished4 hours agoFeaturesDeath in the Channel – what led a boy to make fatal journey?’Toy poodles’ on the Moon: Japan lander gets to workHas great white shark newborn been caught on film?How dangerous is vaping and what is the disposable vape ban?’Playing Mean Girls’ Karen helps break stereotypes’‘Luton is officially cool’ after Big Weekend revealTrain strikes: All you need to knowElection poll tracker: How do the parties compare?’We drove home with empty baby seat’ – NHS trust accused of avoidable infant deaths Elsewhere on the BBCHow did Britain lead the world into the jet age?An unlikely story of outstanding aviation achievement at a time of national austerityAttributioniPlayerTracing the historical origins of British comedy tropesIan Hislop’s on the hunt for the earliest examples of enduring British jokesAttributionSounds’I never tried to be famous…it was accidental’Michael Parkinson with guests Ricky Gervais, Michael Palin and Kate AdieAttributioniPlayer’Comedy saved my life’First broadcast in 2010, hear Frank Skinner’s desert island picks and personal revelationsAttributionSoundsMost Read1Minister quit as he ‘couldn’t afford mortgage’2Medicine stopped in 80s linked to rare Alzheimer’s3What options does US have to respond to Jordan attack?4Laurence Fox loses libel case over social media row5Constance Marten baby in ‘no clothes’ on cold night6Spears seems to apologise to Timberlake over book7’I found my son’s vape stash in roof tile – we need this ban’8King leaves hospital as Kate recovers at home9Met officer guilty of assaulting crime victim10Weekly fast is important discipline for me – Sunak [ad_1] This is an umbrella term for a number of Iran-backed militias, some of which, ironically, have previously fought on the same side as the US against their common enemy… Continue reading
newsinsightplus.com 80saccidentalMichael January 29, 2024 0 Comments BBC HomepageSkip to contentAccessibility HelpYour accountLiveNotificationsHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeMore menuMore menuSearch BBCHomeNewsSportWeatheriPlayerSoundsBitesizeCBBCCBeebiesFoodClose menuBBC NewsMenuHomeIsrael-Gaza warCost of LivingWar in UkraineClimateUKWorldBusinessPoliticsCultureMoreTechScienceHealthFamily & EducationIn PicturesNewsbeatBBC VerifyDisabilityWorldAfricaAsiaAustraliaEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastUS & CanadaJordan base attack: What options does US have to respond?Published1 hour agoShareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingImage source, ReutersImage caption, A US soldier walks towards a burning oil well in southern IraqBy Frank GardnerBBC security correspondentWashington now finds itself facing a dilemma. President Joe Biden has promised a strong response to Sunday’s deadly attack on a US military base in Jordan. But the challenge for the US is to find the right balance between deterrence and escalation. Fail to act decisively and it risks sending a message of weakness that will only encourage more attacks. Act too forcefully and it could trigger an escalatory response from Iran and its allies.So what are the options? And how does this work?The US will already have a number of “on-the-shelf” military options to choose from. These have been drawn up by the US Department of Defense with intelligence input from the CIA and the National Security Agency. They are then presented to the US National Security Council and policymakers, with the president making the final decision and signing off on the chosen course. Option 1: Strike Iran-allied bases and commandersThis is the most obvious choice and one that has been used in the past. There are a large number of bases, weapons stores and training depots across Iraq and Syria belonging to the myriad of Iran-backed militias. These militias are trained, equipped and funded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, but not necessarily directed by them. The US knows who they are and where they are. It could easily carry out more precision-guided missile strikes on these bases – but this has so far failed to deter the militias, who have launched more than 170 attacks on US bases in the region since 7 October.Image source, ReutersImage caption, One arm of the IRGC trains militias in the regionResponsibility for the attack has been claimed by a group calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. This is an umbrella term for a number of Iran-backed militias, some of which, ironically, have previously fought on the same side as the US against their common enemy in the region: Islamic State. They share common aims with Iran, namely to drive the US military from Iraq and Syria and to punish the US for its military support of Israel.Option 2: Strike IranThis would be a massive escalation and not something the US would consider lightly. It is highly unlikely, although not inconceivable, that the US retaliation would include hitting targets on Iranian sovereign territory. Neither Washington nor Tehran want to get into a full-scale war and both have said so. Iran’s response could well include attempting to close the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas flow. This would have a devastating effect on world economies, driving up prices and almost certainly damaging President Biden’s chances of re-election in November.Iran’s sudden strikes show just how perilous region has becomeWhat is Tower 22 and why are US troops in Jordan?Death of US troops ratchets up pressure on BidenOne alternative is to go after senior IRGC commanders in Iraq or Syria. There is a precedent for this, the most notable being four years ago when then-President Donald Trump ordered a drone strike that killed the IRGC Quds Force commander Qassim Suleimani in Baghdad in 2020. But this too would be seen as an escalation, and could well trigger a dangerous response from Tehran.Option 3: Don’t respondThere are those in the US establishment who argue that, given the current tensions in the Middle East, it would be irresponsible for Washington to hit Iranian interests now, especially in an election year. CENTCOM, the part of the US Department of Defense that covers the Middle East, already has its hands full combatting the Houthis’ attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It will also be listening to pleas from US allies around the region not to trigger a wider Middle East conflict.But this view is likely to be outweighed by those who say that the US policy of deterrence to date has failed, and that Washington’s reluctance to hit back hard at those who attack its bases has only encouraged them to step up their attacks.There is a time factor in all of this – some would argue that a radical uptick in US military responses may not be necessary or worthwhile in the long term. First, attacks by Iran-backed militias pre-date the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza – but they have dramatically increased since 7 October. Once Israel’s assault on Gaza concludes then tensions in the region may well subside, although Israel warns this could still be months away. Secondly, there are loud calls by some in Washington for the US to decrease its military footprint in the Middle East. President Trump, when he was in office, had to be persuaded by his military and intelligence chiefs not to pull out all US forces from Syria, where they were helping Kurdish forces stop ISIS from returning. There is a strong possibility that should Trump return to the White House in a year’s time, then Iran will get its way anyhow, if he decides to draw down the US presence in Iraq and Syria.Related TopicsMiddle EastUS Armed ForcesJordanIran-US relationsSyriaJoe BidenMore on this storyIran’s sudden strikes show just how perilous region has becomePublished20 JanuaryThree US troops killed in Middle East drone attackPublished16 hours agoWhat is Tower 22 and why are US troops in Jordan?Published3 hours agoDeath of US troops ratchets up pressure on BidenPublished3 hours agoIran denies involvement in attack that killed US troopsPublished7 hours agoTop StoriesLive. Pentagon names three US soldiers killed in Jordan attackWhat options does US have to respond to Jordan attack?Published1 hour agoKing leaves hospital with Camilla hours after Kate is dischargedPublished4 hours agoFeaturesDeath in the Channel – what led a boy to make fatal journey?’Toy poodles’ on the Moon: Japan lander gets to workHas great white shark newborn been caught on film?How dangerous is vaping and what is the disposable vape ban?’Playing Mean Girls’ Karen helps break stereotypes’‘Luton is officially cool’ after Big Weekend revealTrain strikes: All you need to knowElection poll tracker: How do the parties compare?’We drove home with empty baby seat’ – NHS trust accused of avoidable infant deaths Elsewhere on the BBCHow did Britain lead the world into the jet age?An unlikely story of outstanding aviation achievement at a time of national austerityAttributioniPlayerTracing the historical origins of British comedy tropesIan Hislop’s on the hunt for the earliest examples of enduring British jokesAttributionSounds’I never tried to be famous…it was accidental’Michael Parkinson with guests Ricky Gervais, Michael Palin and Kate AdieAttributioniPlayer’Comedy saved my life’First broadcast in 2010, hear Frank Skinner’s desert island picks and personal revelationsAttributionSoundsMost Read1Minister quit as he ‘couldn’t afford mortgage’2Medicine stopped in 80s linked to rare Alzheimer’s3What options does US have to respond to Jordan attack?4Laurence Fox loses libel case over social media row5Constance Marten baby in ‘no clothes’ on cold night6Spears seems to apologise to Timberlake over book7’I found my son’s vape stash in roof tile – we need this ban’8King leaves hospital as Kate recovers at home9Met officer guilty of assaulting crime victim10Weekly fast is important discipline for me – Sunak [ad_1] This is an umbrella term for a number of Iran-backed militias, some of which, ironically, have previously fought on the same side as the US against their common enemy… Continue reading